It was two months in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the source for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
